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A common assumption is that pathogens more readily destabilize their host populations, leading to an elevated risk of driving both the host and pathogen to extinction. This logic underlies many strategies in conservation biology and pest and disease management. Yet, the interplay between pathogens and population stability likely varies across contexts, depending on the environment and traits of both the hosts and pathogens. This context-dependence may be particularly important in natural consumer-host populations where size- and stage-structured competition for resources strongly modulates population stability. Few studies, however, have examined how the interplay between size and stage structure and infectious disease shapes the stability of host populations. Here, we extend previously developed size-dependent theory for consumer-resource interactions to examine how pathogens influence the stability of host populations across a range of contexts. Specifically, we integrate a size- and stage-structured consumer-resource model and a standard epidemiological model of a directly transmitted pathogen. The model reveals surprisingly rich dynamics, including sustained oscillations, multiple steady states, biomass overcompensation, and hydra effects. Moreover, these results highlight how the stage structure and density of host populations interact to either enhance or constrain disease outbreaks. Our results suggest that accounting for these cross-scale and bidirectional feedbacks can provide key insight into the structuring role of pathogens in natural ecosystems while also improving our ability to understand how interventions targeting one may impact the other. 

Abstract Analyses of transient dynamics are critical to understanding infectious disease transmission and persistence. Identifying and predicting transients across scales, from within-host to community-level patterns, plays an important role in combating ongoing epidemics and mitigating the risk of future outbreaks. Moreover, greater emphases on non-asymptotic processes will enable timely evaluations of wildlife and human diseases and lead to improved surveillance efforts, preventive responses, and intervention strategies. Here, we explore the contributions of transient analyses in recent models spanning the fields of epidemiology, movement ecology, and parasitology. In addition to their roles in predicting epidemic patterns and endemic outbreaks, we explore transients in the contexts of pathogen transmission, resistance, and avoidance at various scales of the ecological hierarchy. Examples illustrate how (i) transient movement dynamics at the individual host level can modify opportunities for transmission events over time; (ii) within-host energetic processes often lead to transient dynamics in immunity, pathogen load, and transmission potential; (iii) transient connectivity between discrete populations in response to environmental factors and outbreak dynamics can affect disease spread across spatial networks; and (iv) increasing species richness in a community can provide transient protection to individuals against infection. Ultimately, we suggest that transient analyses offer deeper insights and raise new, interdisciplinary questions for disease research, consequently broadening the applications of dynamical models for outbreak preparedness and management.